The Rise of Ukip

Yesterday,s Observer suggested that Ukip have overtaken the Liberal Democrats for the first time, making the party of Nick Clegg Britain's fourth party.  That is no great surprise given the way the Liberal Democrats have turned their backs on their former supporters to join the current exceptionally righting government.  However, it might not just be a blip but become permanent.

If Ukip are seen as more credible by pollsters, it means that they are likely to become one of the party names used to prompt interviewees.  That may appear minor, but it will almost certainly lead to Ukip automatically seeing their poll ratings rise, and therefore being taken more seriously. That means more influence for Ukip's anti-European ideas and probably lots more people in the TOry Party calling for a shift (even further) to the right.

If Ukip can overcome the traditional weaknesses of smaller parties in translating votes into seats, it might mean that they hold the balance of power in any future hung Parliament.  That looks like leading to a majority for some very rightwing and nationalistic policies in future.