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Saturday, 26 January 2019

The State of the European Debate

Today will be a People's Vote campaign day.  After a sadly ineffective negotiation, the UK is being offered a deal that is much worse then EU membership.  This is, of course exactly what everyone was told by the European Commission would be on offer after the referendum result back in 2016.  What people were told by the Brexit campaign beforehand was substantially different.  Some Brexit supporters, ignoring their own part in the negotiation apparently want total isolation as an alternative and are prepared to do almost anything to attain this end. 

Jacob Rees Mogg has often been mocked as wanting to go back to the Hanoverians.  His most recent comments sound more like going back to the Stuarts.

I cannot help but think it would be much better for the UK to change its mind and stay in the European Union as a member.  The only legitimate way to do this would be via a new vote.  Although some on the Labour Party side continue to oppose this, there are signs that it is gaining more credibility among Tory MPs.  Significantly, I suspect the promise of a referendum is the only way for the UK to extend Article 50, which would be crucial to making any changes to the withdrawal agreement which pretty much everyone condemns.  The reason is that the procedure Theresa May would be likely to follow, in order to avoid openly confessing that her entire policy has been a mistake, would be to ask for an extension.  The other EU27 would only agree an extension for a reason, such as a referendum.  They won't just extend for no purpose.  In particular they have ruled out changing the offer made to Theresa May. 

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