Keir Starmer Now Leading in Survation Poll

Keir Starmer is now leading in a Survation Poll published by Labourlist.  I am not as confident in their methodology as I am in Yougov's but both appear to be good indicators of a Starmer win

Labour Party Distractions

One thing that those who call for mandatory reselection of MPs might reflect on is that during the period of the Leadership election, Labour has been doing virtually nothing to scrutinise the government.  This has allowed it build a big poll lead despite wilful errors such as the Prime Minister refusing to visit flood hit parts of the UK.

Naval contemplation has its price.

Morland Gardens Redevelopment

There is a proposal on the table to redevelop 1 Morland Gardens on the edge of Stonebridge and Harlesden.  The planning application summary is:

"Demolition of existing buildings and erection of a new mixed use building ranging in height from two to nine storeys, to provide 65 dwellings (Use Class C3), affordable workspace (Use Class B1), new further education college (Use Class D1), with associated amenity areas, public realm improvements, car and cycle parking and refuse/recycling store."

All the properties in the building are proposed as "affordable".  There is also 750 square metres of affordable workspace and space for a college (which is the current use).

The housing is proposed as 40% one bedroom, 18% two bedroom, 10% three bedroom, 7% four bedroom and 4% five bedroom.  This adds up to just under 80% of the space.  All the units will be "social renting". 

Keep Talking

Hope Not Hate and the Community Security Trust (CST) have issued an important report on conspiracy theories and the increasing dialogue between the Far Right and the Far Left (including in the Labour Party).  The number of people involved in these may be small, but they have a disproportionate; the more so when they hide in "moderate" clothing.

Passover Reviews

Passover at the Kiln Theatre has been receiving rhapsodic reviews.  They are thoroughly deserved.

Reasons People Did Not Vote Labour in 2019

Some one has rather usefully actually asked the voters what they think about reasons not to vote Labour, rather than making assumptions.  It should be minded by every Labour Party member voting in our Leadership election. 

UPDATE 25/02/20

I see Angela Rayner's has acknowledged that part of the reasons for the defeat were to do with the Leadership.  I wish others were as frank.  

Passport to Where?

I can't say that this image really consoles me for losing freedom of movement across the European Union, but why does it show Boris Johnson a plane when he is officially in Chevening?

Police Action Going Too Far?

Weird to see the below photograph circulating on the Internet, so much so that I suspect is is "fake news".  If it is not I imagine the government will be going ballistic since it seems like the Police going way too far for their remit.

Brent Council Poverty Commission

I see Brent council is sponsoring a poverty commission.  This is a good idea, but it does seem to replicate the Social Mobility Commission chaired by Lord Knight that was set up round about 2012.  That did not see any of its conclusions pursued because of a lack of political support.  I hope it works out differently this time.

Barnhill Election Petition

Remarkably the Barnhill election has been subjected to an election petition.  This is an extremely unusual proceeding.  The last time it happened in Brent was in 2006 in following a result in Dudden Hill where an employee of the Council was elected as a councillor (representing the Liberal Democrats).  

The Barnhill case is brought by the losing Conservative candidates.  It alleges a miscounting of the votes, but does not say whether they mentioned this to the Returning Officer or examined the ballot papers, as they had a right to do.

Misguided Reforms in the Labour Party

A plea here for more realism on local government governance will hopefully be heard by the winners for the Labour Leadership battle.  Separating the appointment of the Leader from the councillors s/he is supposed to work with is indeed disastrous for reasons I have described.  The new Leader will have the perfect opportunity to look again. 

One Sided Endorsements

More on Graham Durham, the now apparently suspended candidate for the Labour Party NEC.  He appears to be endorsing Jo Bird, but it is not clear whether she is endorsing him. 

I first came across this tactic with Ken Livingstone's runs for London Mayor.  A number of anti-Labour candidates would endorse him even though he was asking people to vote Labour in the Assembly. 

Brent Council Budget 2020

What with the Labour leadership and all, I have not had the opportunity to fully review the Brent Council budget which will be going forward at the full Council today, but I have noticed:

• A property review to maximise income, which I take it calls into question any promises of peppercorn rents.
• A general commitment to large savings from future budgets without a clear pathway to achieving them, which strikes me as a worrying sign of a Council kicking potential problems down the line.  For example there is a commitment to as extra £245k in environmental services through unidentified "efficiencies".
• A general commitment to "robust challenge" in terms of the cost of Council services i.e. gatekeeping on people accessing services combined with with refusing to pay beyond a certain level.

Labour's NEC Nominations

Those who follow the internal workings of the Labour Party, a select breed I imagine, may be interested in progress on the two by elections to Labour's National Executive.  Labour's official list of nominations is available.

The only Brent resident I am aware of going for this is a person called Graham Durham who recently achieved notoriety over his opposition to Rebecca Long-Bailey at one of her own rallies.  Sienna Rogers, the editor of Labourlist has commented:

Andrew Sabisky and Boris Johnson

I have argued before that Boris Johnson may through either ineptitude or sheer hubris start chipping away at his own authority, but I am surprised at how quickly this is happening.

According to the Huffington Post, he is refused to distance himself from Andrew Sabisky's offensive comments on race, eugenics and so on.  Given his own record of comments on black people, this amazes me.  He is wide open to the accusation that he agrees with his aide.  Mashing up vaccination programmes with compulsory sterilisation is the kind of thing that delayed the eradication of polio.  It is profoundly dangerous coming from some one in Downing Street.  Mr Sabisky' views also mean that he has such a skewed view of the world that his advice on policy will be useless.

Any sensible Prime Minister would have got rid of him immediately. Instead Johnson waited until the press had cottoned on, and only did it last night, making himself look both weak and stupid.

Passover in the Kiln Theatre

I saw Passover at the Kiln theatre recently.  Billed as a mash up of the Moses story and Waiting for Godet, it is as powerful a piece of drama as I have seen for a long time.  It seems to be one of a number of such plays taking long established classics and giving them a different modern twist (as in Wife and When the Crows Visit earlier in the season).  It is also the first production to be put on in the round.  Thus it takes advantage of the enhanced flexibility which was one of the points of the refurbishment. 

Spread of Coronavirus

The spread of the coronavirus, which now appears to be inevitable, reminds me of Amartya Sen's work on famine.  He pointed out that famine had only occurred in non-democratic countries, and that a key reason was the absence of a free press.  This meant the authrities themselves don't realise how widespread the problems are until it is late in the cycle, and I suspect something like this may have happened in China.

Council Carbon Footprint

Many English Councils don't know the extent of their carbon footprint, according to the Guardian.  That is truly worrying.  Without knowing that how can they say they are seriously committed to reducing it?  I am glad to say that Brent Council is a lot more advanced, thanks to the Civic Centre and other projects.

Johnson's Buses Oversold

It should come as no surprise that the £5 billion for local transport in the regions of England is overblown.  Firstly, it is over years i.e. £1 billion capital spend year split between England's eight non-London regions.  That is £125 million per region for five years.

It sounds as if it is mostly capital spend, and I am not sure if it is even new money or a recycled announcement.  Given repaving one kilometre of pavement costs about £150,000 and resurfacing one kilometre of carriageway about £100,000; that kind of sum will not go far with say, the whole of East Anglia.

It certainly does not begin to make up for the last decade of cuts.

Cabinet Shuffle

The Cabinet shuffle appears to be much more consequential than expected.  It is currently reported that Javid is going as he will not accept all his advisers being sacked.  This kind of thing, so early in his tenure, suggests that Johnson's Prime Ministership could be a lot shorter than expected despite his huge majority.