Regeneration is More Complex than You Think

There is an interesting story about the redevelopment of the Aylesbury Estate in Southwark that has not had the attention it deserved.  It illustrates how complex the calculations around these things can be, as I have pointed out before.

The Aylesbury estate was notorious as one of the worst in Britain even back when Tony Blair was first elected in 1997. 

All these years on, it still is. 

Southwark, having failed to tackle the problem over so many years, now has yet another plan, but this one appears to be guaranteeing the profits of the private partner.  The Council has to accept not getting a return in the case of a house price crash (which seems not unlikely) and in any case makes a big loss on the redevelopment. 

Whether that is the best deal that they can get is a matter for Southwark, but it is reminder that you cannot just wave a wand and see redevelopment without risk.