2019 General Election

The Tories are now congratulating themselves on their biggest win since 1987, and Labour is facing the fact that the Labour result is the worst since 1935.  Arguably, Labour's position is worse since it is going backward whereas 1935 was an advance on the 1931 disaster.

Looking at Labour's weaknesses should be a chastening exercise for those in control of the Party for the past four years.  Labour lost support in every region of the UK, and missed almost all of the seats that is was supposed to be targeting.  The record low ratings of the Leader were obviously one key reason for this, as well as the mixed message on Brexit, which no one could understand.  I would argue unease over how to pay for the policies, and concern that some of the policies were unwelcome must also have been part of the problem.

There are, however, some bright points in this story.  If the Leader was a key vote loser, replacing him offers the chance of an improvement almost immediately.  None of the other parties have come close to replacing Labour with the apparent promise of the Liberal Democrat recovery ending in tears with them getting fewer seats than in 2017.  Hence Labour remains the alternative to the Conservatives.

The Tory victory is itself precarious.  Boris Johnson would do well to recall that Thatcher's biggest victory in 1987 was followed by being ousted as Prime Minister three years later and John Major just scrapping into office in 1992.  Her agenda seemed a lot more coherent than his does.  He has promised to "Get Brexit Done" but has doomed the UK to years more of Brexit negotiations with an ever weaker hand.  The economy will be hit, meaning less spending power.  This will be on top of his promises in any case being unaffordable and mutually contradictory.  His startling reversals on long held Tory positions to support more competition in markets and to "review" major features of the Constitution such as the Judiciary could lead into all sorts of pitfalls.  Johnson's own frankly unsuitable character as Prime Minister will further undermine him.  Finally a resurgent SNP will be constantly trying to break up the UK.

Everything seems set for the next Tory government to be a failure, and if Labour manage to construct a reasonable alternative, it could make gains at an unprecedented rate.