Hung Parliament?

Not long before we know the General Election result, and I have no idea whether any of the election predictions are likely to be true.

If the Parliament is hung it will be bad for the economy, but also very awkward for the Queen. She may well be placed in a situation where she is making choices that are bound to be seen as political. As I understand it, the sitting Prime Minister can continue in office and attempt to form either a minority administration or a coalition. If he fails, he can then go to the Queen, resign and choose to give formal advice to the Queen to approach someone else to form an administration. This would effectively be binding for the Queen. Alternatively, he can not give her formal advice and just let her make her own decision. Most difficult of all would be if he asked for another Election and the Queen didn't want to give him one.

That would leave the constitutional lawyers trailing through precedentss not just in the UK but also the Commonwealth.

The most striking of these was in South Africa at the start of the Second World War. The existing Prime Minister did not want to declare war on Germany. Jan Christian Smuts led a faction to declare war alongside Britain, and won a vote in the South African Parliament. The Prime Minister requested a dissolution and the Governor General (who had similar powers to the Queen) said no, appointed Smuts as Prime Minister instead, and then declared war on Germany.

I find it pretty amazing that he was able to get away with that even in 1939. I am sure the Queen would have a lot of trouble refusing an election these days.